← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5690000
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 40.0%, up 9.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability40.0%
Bid / ask / mid37.0¢ / 39.0¢ / 38.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (5.3%)
Change 24h+9.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 32% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$276
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,986 / $2,191
Imbalance32% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 57 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.23
RSI (14, hourly)56.7
Realized vol 7d2.01pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 16h.
Time to resolve1d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.