← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5690002
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 21?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (10.5%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$707
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$631 / $737
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 22 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.64
RSI (14, hourly)22.2
Realized vol 7d2.94pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 16h.
Time to resolve1d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.