← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5690016
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 21?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.8%, up 1.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability99.8%
Bid / ask / mid99.3¢ / 99.4¢ / 99.4¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h+1.40pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 66/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 69% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$2,550
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14,521 / $17,736
Imbalance69% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score65.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.66
RSI (14, hourly)54.3
Realized vol 7d6.61pt
Change 1h-0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 16h.
Time to resolve1d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.