← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5690018
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 21?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.4%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability98.4%
Bid / ask / mid98.4¢ / 98.9¢ / 98.7¢
Spread0.5¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h+5.55pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 83/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 42% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$21,325
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14,701 / $56,485
Imbalance42% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score83.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.40
RSI (14, hourly)52.9
Realized vol 7d2.06pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 16h.
Time to resolve1d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.