← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5691245
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 71.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability71.0%
Bid / ask / mid63.0¢ / 65.0¢ / 64.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.1%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$923
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,102 / $10,465
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.13
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d4.36pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.