← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5693642
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.4%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability98.4%
Bid / ask / mid98.2¢ / 98.4¢ / 98.3¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 75/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 29% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,885
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$812 / $52,137
Imbalance29% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score75.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 17 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.82
RSI (14, hourly)16.7
Realized vol 7d0.29pt
Change 1h-0.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 0h.
Time to resolve2d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.