← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5697539
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.0%, down 3.7pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability94.0%
Bid / ask / mid93.4¢ / 94.0¢ / 93.7¢
Spread0.6¢ (0.6%)
Change 24h-3.75pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 66/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$165,061
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14,552 / $22,560
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score65.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 39 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.07
RSI (14, hourly)39.3
Realized vol 7d1.35pt
Change 1h-2.55pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 4h.
Time to resolve2d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.