← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5732709
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 64.0%, up 33.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability64.0%
Bid / ask / mid64.0¢ / 66.0¢ / 65.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.1%)
Change 24h+33.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 41% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$78,932
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,999 / $4,235
Imbalance41% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score43.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 82 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.57
RSI (14, hourly)82.0
Realized vol 7d8.61pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 4h.
Time to resolve3d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.