← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5732710
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 35.3%, down 26.9pt over 24h, on a 1.8¢ spread.
Implied probability35.3%
Bid / ask / mid33.6¢ / 35.4¢ / 34.5¢
Spread1.8¢ (5.2%)
Change 24h-26.90pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$49,830
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,505 / $3,309
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score43.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 18 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.07
RSI (14, hourly)18.0
Realized vol 7d8.53pt
Change 1h-0.60pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 4h.
Time to resolve3d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.