← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5732711
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.5%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability0.5%
Bid / ask / mid0.5¢ / 0.6¢ / 0.5¢
Spread0.1¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$46,052
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$40 / $197
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score49.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.59
RSI (14, hourly)53.8
Realized vol 7d3.23pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 4h.
Time to resolve3d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.