← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5739555
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 22?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, down 5.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 12.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (24.0%)
Change 24h-5.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,408
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$668 / $911
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.79
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d2.02pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 16h.
Time to resolve2d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.