← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5739559
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 22?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 32.5%, up 4.5pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability32.5%
Bid / ask / mid29.0¢ / 36.0¢ / 32.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (21.5%)
Change 24h+4.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 17/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 33% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,563 / $1,973
Imbalance33% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score16.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 79 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.36
RSI (14, hourly)79.3
Realized vol 7d1.76pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 16h.
Time to resolve2d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.