← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5739644
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 22?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.7%, up 2.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability98.7%
Bid / ask / mid98.7¢ / 98.8¢ / 98.8¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h+2.30pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 71/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 57% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$9,640
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14,007 / $29,730
Imbalance57% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score71.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.73
RSI (14, hourly)60.5
Realized vol 7d0.53pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 16h.
Time to resolve2d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.