← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5776846
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 23?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 93.0%, up 6.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability93.0%
Bid / ask / mid93.0¢ / 95.0¢ / 94.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.1%)
Change 24h+6.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 58/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 64% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$5,722
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,931 / $21,569
Imbalance64% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score57.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.19
RSI (14, hourly)47.1
Realized vol 7d1.35pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 16h.
Time to resolve3d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.