← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5785090
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.2%, down 1.7pt over 24h, on a 16.1¢ spread.
Implied probability6.2%
Bid / ask / mid0.5¢ / 16.6¢ / 8.6¢
Spread16.1¢ (188.3%)
Change 24h-1.70pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.84
RSI (14, hourly)48.6
Realized vol 7d2.70pt
Change 1h+1.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 59d 0h.
Time to resolve59d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.