← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5785092
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 29.0%, up 7.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability29.0%
Bid / ask / mid28.0¢ / 30.0¢ / 29.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (6.9%)
Change 24h+7.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,189
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$37 / $36
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.57
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d4.40pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 59d 0h.
Time to resolve59d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.