← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5785093
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.8%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 17.3¢ spread.
Implied probability3.8%
Bid / ask / mid0.8¢ / 18.1¢ / 9.4¢
Spread17.3¢ (183.1%)
Change 24h-0.70pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.11
RSI (14, hourly)47.7
Realized vol 7d3.15pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 59d 0h.
Time to resolve59d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.