← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5786291
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 95.3%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability95.3%
Bid / ask / mid94.2¢ / 95.3¢ / 94.8¢
Spread1.1¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 28% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$48
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,158 / $8,054
Imbalance28% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.29
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d4.90pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 14d 5h.
Time to resolve14d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.