← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5787490
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A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 55.0%, down 4.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability55.0%
Bid / ask / mid54.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 55.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-4.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 89/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$86,613
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$81,309 / $16,718
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)7
Liquidity score89.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 24 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.01
RSI (14, hourly)23.8
Realized vol 7d2.07pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 42d 5h.
Time to resolve42d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.