← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5798017
Ausar Thompson: Points O/U 9.5
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 53.0%, up 15.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability53.0%
Bid / ask / mid51.0¢ / 55.0¢ / 53.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (7.5%)
Change 24h+15.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4 / $200
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.06
RSI (14, hourly)48.0
Realized vol 7d9.33pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 19h.
Time to resolve0d 19h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.