← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5802594
Set 2 Winner: Katie Boulter vs Himeno Sakatsume
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 85.0%, up 29.5pt over 24h, on a 12.0¢ spread.
Implied probability85.0%
Bid / ask / mid83.0¢ / 95.0¢ / 89.0¢
Spread12.0¢ (13.5%)
Change 24h+29.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 87% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$2,441
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance87% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.30
RSI (14, hourly)48.8
Realized vol 7d5.04pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 1h.
Time to resolve6d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.