← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5822985
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 24?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.6%, up 1.6pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability97.6%
Bid / ask / mid98.6¢ / 99.0¢ / 98.8¢
Spread0.4¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h+1.60pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 68/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 59% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$260
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$12,703 / $27,462
Imbalance59% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score68.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 46 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.08
RSI (14, hourly)45.7
Realized vol 7d6.85pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4d 16h.
Time to resolve4d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.