← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5824120
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 3.8pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.7¢ / 7.9¢ / 7.3¢
Spread1.2¢ (16.4%)
Change 24h+3.75pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$13,853
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$60 / $414
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.03
RSI (14, hourly)67.0
Realized vol 7d2.23pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 16h.
Time to resolve1d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.