← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5824121
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 50.0%, up 22.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability50.0%
Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 51.0¢ / 50.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.0%)
Change 24h+22.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 17% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,694
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$388 / $466
Imbalance17% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 79 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.27
RSI (14, hourly)78.8
Realized vol 7d4.27pt
Change 1h+6.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 16h.
Time to resolve1d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.