← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5839586
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6PM ET
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.9%, up 49.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability99.9%
Bid / ask / mid99.9¢ / 100.0¢ / 99.9¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h+49.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 50% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$14,389
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance50% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 6.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean6.69
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d7.30pt
Change 1h+49.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Order book unavailable.
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.