← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5843238
Florence: Michele Ribecai vs Jacopo Vasami
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 62.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability62.0%
Bid / ask / mid59.0¢ / 62.0¢ / 60.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (5.0%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 47% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$68,565
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,418 / $1,628
Imbalance47% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score37.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.68
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d1.53pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 8h.
Time to resolve6d 8h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.