← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5856953
Cali: Completed Match: Hernan Casanova vs Gonzalo Bueno
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 94.0¢ spread.
Implied probability99.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.0¢ / 99.0¢ / 52.0¢
Spread94.0¢ (180.8%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$15
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 66.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean66.73
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d0.59pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 15h.
Time to resolve6d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.