← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5863639
Game Spread: Michele Ribecai (-1.5) vs Jacopo Vasami (+1.5)
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 75.0%, up 22.5pt over 24h, on a 50.0¢ spread.
Implied probability75.0%
Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 100.0¢ / 75.0¢
Spread50.0¢ (66.7%)
Change 24h+22.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 100% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance100% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 98 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.06
RSI (14, hourly)98.0
Realized vol 7d4.21pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 8h.
Time to resolve6d 8h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.