← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5880780
France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.0%, down 1.7pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability2.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.4¢ / 2.2¢ / 1.8¢
Spread0.8¢ (44.4%)
Change 24h-1.65pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,063
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$112 / $322
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 37 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.72
RSI (14, hourly)36.7
Realized vol 7d1.62pt
Change 1h-0.75pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 4h.
Time to resolve2d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.