← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5880781
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, up 8.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 14.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.9%)
Change 24h+8.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$47,288
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,544 / $3,145
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score47.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.30
RSI (14, hourly)73.1
Realized vol 7d2.37pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.