← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5880782
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 25.0%, up 7.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability25.0%
Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 25.0¢ / 23.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (12.8%)
Change 24h+7.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,340
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,235 / $1,415
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.29
RSI (14, hourly)59.5
Realized vol 7d4.32pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.