← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5880852
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 0.8pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.5¢ / 3.0¢ / 2.8¢
Spread0.5¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h-0.80pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$52,874
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,401 / $624
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score49.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 78 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.46
RSI (14, hourly)78.0
Realized vol 7d0.84pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 27d 5h.
Time to resolve27d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.