← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5889104
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 25?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.2%, up 1.2pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability98.2%
Bid / ask / mid98.3¢ / 99.0¢ / 98.7¢
Spread0.7¢ (0.7%)
Change 24h+1.15pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 78/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 41% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,499
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$12,684 / $50,923
Imbalance41% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score78.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.21
RSI (14, hourly)53.6
Realized vol 7d8.59pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 16h.
Time to resolve5d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.