← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5889106
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 25?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.8%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.2¢ spread.
Implied probability96.8%
Bid / ask / mid95.0¢ / 97.2¢ / 96.1¢
Spread2.2¢ (2.3%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 72/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 43% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$10,488
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$12,136 / $54,427
Imbalance43% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score72.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.14
RSI (14, hourly)44.6
Realized vol 7d0.85pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 16h.
Time to resolve5d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.