← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5889107
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 25?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 90.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability90.0%
Bid / ask / mid88.0¢ / 92.0¢ / 90.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (4.4%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 51% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$42
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10,982 / $12,366
Imbalance51% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.53
RSI (14, hourly)46.7
Realized vol 7d1.49pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 16h.
Time to resolve5d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.