← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5889721
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 51.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability51.0%
Bid / ask / mid51.0¢ / 52.0¢ / 51.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$35,203
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,121 / $7,927
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score52.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.08
RSI (14, hourly)52.0
Realized vol 7d1.90pt
Change 1h-3.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.