← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5889722
Ethereum Up or Down on October 20?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 67.0%, up 14.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability67.0%
Bid / ask / mid64.0¢ / 65.0¢ / 64.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h+14.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,121
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,335 / $7,609
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.55
RSI (14, hourly)73.0
Realized vol 7d2.26pt
Change 1h+5.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.