← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5904730
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.0%, up 47.8pt over 24h, on a 1.8¢ spread.
Implied probability99.0%
Bid / ask / mid97.0¢ / 98.8¢ / 97.5¢
Spread1.8¢ (1.8%)
Change 24h+47.75pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 79% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$6,233
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,540 / $1,456
Imbalance79% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 98 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.26
RSI (14, hourly)98.0
Realized vol 7d4.64pt
Change 1h+12.75pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.