← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5912686
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 19?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.8%, flat over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability0.8%
Bid / ask / mid0.1¢ / 1.1¢ / 0.6¢
Spread1.0¢ (166.7%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$30,654
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9 / $397
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score45.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 21 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.83
RSI (14, hourly)20.5
Realized vol 7d1.00pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 4h.
Time to resolve0d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.