← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5912687
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 19-25?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.0%, flat over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability24.0%
Bid / ask / mid21.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.7%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,766
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,755 / $2,944
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 27 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.80
RSI (14, hourly)26.6
Realized vol 7d2.70pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 4h.
Time to resolve6d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.