← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5912693
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 53.0%, flat over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability53.0%
Bid / ask / mid51.0¢ / 53.0¢ / 52.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.8%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,481
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,148 / $9,337
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.64
RSI (14, hourly)59.6
Realized vol 7d3.65pt
Change 1h-3.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 4h.
Time to resolve6d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.