← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5912696
Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 19?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.0%, flat over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability7.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 8.0¢ / 7.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (13.3%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$57,939
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$229 / $612
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.63
RSI (14, hourly)46.7
Realized vol 7d6.21pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 4h.
Time to resolve0d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.