← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5912725
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on October 19?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.1%, flat over 24h, on a 3.4¢ spread.
Implied probability6.1%
Bid / ask / mid0.6¢ / 4.0¢ / 2.3¢
Spread3.4¢ (147.8%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 33/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$64,184
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$27 / $481
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score33.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 26 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.34
RSI (14, hourly)26.3
Realized vol 7d4.07pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 4h.
Time to resolve0d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.