← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5912728
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on October 19?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, flat over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability4.0%
Bid / ask / mid3.2¢ / 5.2¢ / 4.2¢
Spread2.0¢ (47.6%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,406
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$61 / $266
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score40.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 17 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.11
RSI (14, hourly)16.6
Realized vol 7d11.48pt
Change 1h-0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 4h.
Time to resolve0d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.