← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5929833
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 91.0%, flat over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability91.0%
Bid / ask / mid90.0¢ / 91.0¢ / 90.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 64% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$2,754
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,270 / $2,803
Imbalance64% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.47
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.