← Explore · Polymarket · Market 601819
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 23.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability23.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 24.0¢ / 23.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+11.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$256,591
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$120,140 / $81,740
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)24
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.00
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.75pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.