← Explore · Polymarket · Market 601819
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
55.5% implied · bid 55.0¢ · ask 56.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 56.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability56.0%
Bid / ask / mid55.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 55.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.8%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$88,202
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$150,567 / $28,718
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)10
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.48
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.16pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 29d 7h.
Time to resolve29d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%