← Explore · Polymarket · Market 601826
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 76.3%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability76.3%
Bid / ask / mid76.2¢ / 76.4¢ / 76.3¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h-2.55pt
Change 7d-10.75pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 99/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$486,541
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$169,474 / $413,861
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)34
Liquidity score99.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.19
RSI (14, hourly)38.0
Realized vol 7d0.60pt
Change 1h-0.55pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.