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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

41.0% implied · bid 41.0¢ · ask 41.1¢

The market prices this at 41.0%, down 2.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability41.0%

Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 41.1¢ / 41.0¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.2%)

Change 24h-2.10pt

Change 7d+5.40pt

Moderately liquid (score 72/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$99,686

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16,675 / $28,716

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)9

Liquidity score72.2 / 100

RSI 26 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.47

RSI (14, hourly)26.3

Realized vol 7d0.46pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 29d 7h.

Time to resolve29d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%