← Explore · Polymarket · Market 601835
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0.9% implied · bid 0.8¢ · ask 0.9¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.8%, up 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability0.8%
Bid / ask / mid0.8¢ / 0.9¢ / 0.9¢
Spread0.1¢ (11.8%)
Change 24h+0.70pt
Change 7d+0.70pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$158,322
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$94 / $1,722
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 11.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean11.30
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.05pt
Change 1h+0.70pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 29d 7h.
Time to resolve29d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%