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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

4.9% implied · bid 4.4¢ · ask 5.4¢

The market prices this at 4.3%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability4.3%

Bid / ask / mid4.4¢ / 5.4¢ / 4.9¢

Spread1.0¢ (20.4%)

Change 24h-0.25pt

Change 7d-3.60pt

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$6,972

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,264 / $217

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score46.2 / 100

RSI 35 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.32

RSI (14, hourly)35.5

Realized vol 7d0.34pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 29d 7h.

Time to resolve29d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%