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Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

6.8% implied · bid 6.7¢ · ask 6.8¢

The market prices this at 6.8%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability6.8%

Bid / ask / mid6.7¢ / 6.8¢ / 6.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (1.5%)

Change 24h-0.50pt

Change 7d+0.10pt

Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$19,972

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,625 / $7,123

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score55.4 / 100

RSI 8 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.37

RSI (14, hourly)7.7

Realized vol 7d0.15pt

Change 1h-0.10pt

Resolves in 56d 7h.

Time to resolve56d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%